ACUS11 KWNS 181704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181704=20
TXZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of Edwards Plateau and Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181704Z - 181900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and occasional strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of Texas Hill Country and the Concho Valley
this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across the
southwestern portions of Edwards Plateau over the past hour, well
north of a southward-moving surface cold front. RAP forecast
soundings and latest mesoanalysis depict 500-1000+ J/kg MUCAPE with
lifted parcel levels atop the frontal inversion, which will continue
to favor robust updrafts with elevated convection. Coincident strong
mid/upper level flow (evident within the SJT VAD profile) is
contributing to 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear, sufficient for
elevated supercells. With modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and
elongated hodographs (noted via mesoanalysis and recent ACARS
profiles from SAT), isolated large hail will be possible with the
strongest storms. While convection will remain elevated, occasional
strong wind gusts may be possible with stronger downdrafts. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time given the expectation for the
threat coverage/magnitude to remain limited.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_DcdgIZDlQckaYlAG2wVYPAe_NdKWE4NN4u5e8_KMCvXLXSDyGL3IM91fncDKTj6Ya1CNIoab= D37ya_LPVqj81aiYpA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31630043 31869978 31999887 31959826 31739766 31249734
30719749 30409800 30119863 29899966 29880025 29970070
30180105 30370121 30660121 30960104 31310078 31630043=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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