ACUS02 KWNS 080559
SWODY2
SPC AC 080557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the
Texas Panhandle.

...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S.
on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At
the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and
central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far
northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing
low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms
gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model
forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop
across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending
eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late
afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with
700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support
isolated supercell development with potential for large hail.
Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F
along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts.

Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle,
dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually
increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east
of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a
marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will
be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081722
SWODY2
SPC AC 081720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon
and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward
into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

...Synopsis...
An area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist from central into eastern
Canada, with various waves rotating from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes. The southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft
will extend across much of the northern Plains and the Midwest, with
30 kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern KS and MO.

At the surface, a warm front will lift north across northern KS and
MO during the day, with 50s F dewpoints spreading north with gusty
south winds. As a shortwave disturbance moves into the northern
Plains late, a surge of high pressure will push this boundary south
as a cold front after 00Z, extending from southwest KS into central
MO and IL by 12Z Friday. Scattered strong to severe storms will be
most likely along this east-west front, with more isolated activity
from western KS into the TX Panhandle along a dryline.

..Central Plains...
Storms are expected to develop relatively early, perhaps around 18Z
over northeast KS into southeast NE as warm/moistening air from the
south interacts with the warm front. Strong heating south of the
boundary will result in steep low-level lapse rates, while the
increasing theta-e rises near the boundary and beneath cold midlevel temperatures. The cold profiles aloft along with 40 kt effective
deep-layer shear will favor hail production, with perhaps isolated
very large hail.

As heating peaks during the later afternoon, additional cells are
expected extending southwestward into north-central KS. Though
dewpoints will only be in the 50s F, slow-moving supercells will be
possible, again with very large hail.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090553
SWODY2
SPC AC 090551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Friday, as
mid-level flow remains westerly across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly
southward to near the Kansas and Oklahoma state-line by midday.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
near the front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development in the afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the
lower 60s F will contribute to a pocket of instability near the
front in the afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak around 1500
J/kg. In addition, deep-layer shear is forecast to be around 30
knots near the front with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8
C/km range. This environment should be sufficient for an isolated
severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from
northern Nevada into southwest Idaho.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into the
Northeast, with temporary ridging across the Plains. To the west, a
large-scale upper trough will develop, with a lead wave moving into
the Great Basin overnight while a deeper upper low drops south off
the West Coast. Despite the ridging over the Plains, midlevel
temperatures will remain seasonably cool with around -14 C over KS.

At the surface, high pressure will move from the northern Plains
toward the Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the
Northeast and into the OH Valley. Farther west, this front will
decelerate from southern MO into northern OK, and become a warm
front overnight into southern KS. Elsewhere, a surface trough will
develop from ID into NV as height falls occur late.

...From northeast NM eastward across southern KS and northern OK...
Showers and storms may be ongoing Friday morning from southeast KS
into northern OK, southwest MO and into northwest AR, with perhaps
some strong gust potential. This activity may weaken during the day.
To the west, strong heating will occur south of the main boundary,
with 50 F to near 60 F dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE.
Backed surface winds near the boundary will likely aid storm
development into northeast NM late in the afternoon, with activity
moving into the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening. Activity will
be slow moving, with localized hail or wind potential.

...Northwest NV into southwest ID...
Strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures will result in
steep lapse rates across the region as the upper trough gradually
approaches. Deep-layer shear will be weak during the day but will
increase to 35-40 kt by evening as height falls arrive. Given the
later influence of the upper trough and marginal combination of
shear and instability, will maintain no severe probabilities at this
time. However, a cell or two could produce locally strong gusts or small/marginal hail into the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100523
SWODY2
SPC AC 100521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.

...Southern/Central Plains...

Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday.
A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate
northeast through the period, along with several other lead
shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low
near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the
upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt
will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the
northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends
southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward
toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest
large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit
daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least
transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a
low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of
updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce
locally strong wind gusts.

Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the
central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during
the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate
capping will likely preclude much convective development within the
warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become
sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This
scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of
eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.

...Central CA...

Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley
vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and
increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over
the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less
than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly
occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front
approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped
convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not
expected at this time.

...Great Basin vicinity...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel
lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well
mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could
support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears
limited.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge across the Plains will move east through the day
on Saturday with a strong mid-level trough approaching the
California coast. In between these 2 features, a mid-level shortwave
trough will move from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains. Lee
surface troughing will develop across the Front Range. The resulting strengthening low-level southerly flow will bring moisture northward
across the Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon
across West Texas and into eastern New Mexico. Weak inhibition
should allow for widespread thunderstorm development by early to
mid-afternoon. Relatively weak shear, especially early on will
likely result in somewhat nebulous organization and storm mergers
which may preclude individual updraft longevity/strength. However,
storms are expected to congeal by late afternoon and may result in
some more organized wind threat, supported into the overnight
period, as the low-level jet strengthens.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Weak height falls are expected to overspread the central Plains
through the day on Saturday. As this occurs, isolated to potentially
scattered storms are expected along and near the diffuse dryline.
Shear will remain somewhat weak across this region and therefore,
some hail/wind threat is possible, but a greater threat is not
anticipated. Guidance shows a small jet-streak ejecting across
central Kansas during the day Saturday. This may provide a slightly
more favorable zone of shear across central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show an
uncapped environment, but without an initiating boundary, storm
development remains uncertain. Any mesoscale lift associated with
this mid-level jet streak could result in an isolated supercell
during the afternoon/evening, but this scenario remains conditional.

...Iowa into southern Minnesota...
As the low-level jet strengthens Saturday night, isentropic ascent
will increase and thunderstorms will develop across the Upper
Midwest. Some 12Z CAM guidance has hinted at some additional
elevated thunderstorms across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota
in the wake of the primary zone of ascent. This is likely associated
with the same jet streak moving across Kansas during the day. If
storms develop within this zone, forecast soundings support some
large hail threat. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to
cover this threat.

...Central California...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the California
coast Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show relatively weak
instability ahead of this line (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE). However, 40
knots of flow in the lowest 1km may be sufficient to mix down some
of these stronger winds and result in some severe wind threat
Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Great Basin Vicinity...
Given the well-mixed, steep lapse-rate environment a few of the
storms which develop across the Great Basin vicinity could have some
strong wind gusts. Relatively weak instability may keep these
stronger gusts somewhat sporadic. Therefore, a Marginal Risk will
not be introduced at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on
Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave
impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow
across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the
Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F
dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move
across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across
southern MN into WI.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday
morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward
into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on
airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline
during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could
accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move
across OK/TX during the morning.

In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly
mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions
of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a
lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is
forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support
up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are
apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally
support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the
evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is
uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a
narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in
addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or
redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex,
but this scenario remains very uncertain.

...South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity...

A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime
hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though
deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across
Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening.
If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts
will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and
bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours.

...Upper Midwest...

Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the
upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective
development may be limited in the wake of that feature.
Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead
of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened
midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms
develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger
storms.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111731
SWODY2
SPC AC 111730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level low will move inland across the West Coast
while ridging continues across the eastern US. Broad southwesterly
flow will propagate across the Rockies and into the Plains, with
several shortwaves troughs pivoting through the plains into the
upper Midwest. This pattern will favor lee troughing in the lee of
the Rockies. Across the southern/central Plains, southerly surface
flow will usher in moisture northward all the way from the southern
Plains into the upper Mid-west ahead of surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX.

It is likely that widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be
ongoing at the start of the D2/Sunday period across TX/OK and across central/northern MN. Some re-intensification of convection will be
possible across portions of central/eastern Texas. Additional
activity is expected to develop by the afternoon in the vicinity of
the dryline and across the Sierra Madre in Mexico.

...Central/Southern Plains...
In the wake of morning convection across portions of western Texas
into the OK/TX Panhandles, strong southwesterly flow will continue
to advect warm moist boundary layer conditions and a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. HREF guidance shows persistent mid to high
level clouds remaining in place across the region through the early
afternoon. It is likely that with mixing/heating some breaks in this
cloud cover will allow for sheltered heating and air mass recovery.
Most guidance suggests MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will be common
from western Texas into western/central OK and southern KS. Given
the nebulous forcing, convective initiation in the afternoon will
likely be tied initially to the dryline circulation from western
Texas into western Oklahoma and high terrain in Mexico. Generally
linear hodographs and the steep lapse rate profiles will support
risk for large to very large hail and strong to severe winds.
Additional more isolated development may occur across the dryline in
KS/NE. With any supercells that can maintain a semi-discrete mode,
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

...Upper Midwest...
Re-development of thunderstorm activity across the Upper Midwest
remains less certain Sunday afternoon. The mid-level wave will
advance eastward with a warm front lifting into Canada and surface
low tracking northeast. Most CAM guidance produces little to no
thunderstorm activity likely owing to the forcing shifting eastward
too quickly. HREF calibrated thunder signals also remain low. The
environment will be conditionally unstable, with MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg overlapping favorable low-level and deep layer shear
profiles. Should an isolated storm or two occur, the potential will
remain for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120548
SWODY2
SPC AC 120547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from
the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude
upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The
shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the
southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners
region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will
develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee
troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend
southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm
front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These
boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development
during the afternoon/evening.

...Upper Midwest...

Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s
F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI.
Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the
region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much
of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By
late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to
overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may
be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front
given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles,
cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong
instability will support large hail potential.

If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable
of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain,
it appears most probable from southeast MN toward
south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time
into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.

...Southern Plains...

A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the
surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX
Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping
will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the
dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the
dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient
for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest
low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop,
supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps
a tornado will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121729
SWODY2
SPC AC 121727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains
to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will
move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave
trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift
east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough
from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will
pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low
pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA
border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains.
A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western
OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into
southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into
southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid
dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through
the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity
for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the
region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will
overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially
elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and
thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able
to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for
a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large
clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear.
An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail
potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI,
continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.

...Central/Southern Plains....
A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into
the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong
daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the
dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F.
Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of
the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for
ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit
a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong
instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the
low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell
threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence
along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south
into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop,
the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches
in diameter).

..Thornton.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130606
SWODY2
SPC AC 130604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large
to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...

A broad swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
An upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will slowly pivot
east through the period, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave impulse is also
forecast to move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At
the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley
for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast
from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI.
Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into
western TX. Ahead of these boundaries, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place, with mid-60s dewpoints common. The aforementioned
surface boundaries will become a focus severe thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

...Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity...

A severe risk is expected to develop by late afternoon within the
warm frontal zone from Iowa into northern IL/southern WI in a
persistent warm advection regime. While height tendencies are
forecast to remain mostly neutral, low-level convergence along the
boundary and a glancing influence from a weak shortwave impulse
migrating across the northern Plains into northern MN/Upper MI
should provide focused ascent. A southwesterly 850-700 mb jet is
also forecast to increase across the region by late afternoon into
evening. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 C at 500 mb) and steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg amid elongated/straight hodographs. As a
result, large to very large hail will be possible with initial
supercell thunderstorms. Storm motion and southwesterly deep-layer
flow may result in convection moving to the cool side of the warm
front. Even so, elevated storms will pose a risk for significant
hail. With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most
bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a
continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind
gusts.

Any supercells that develop and can be sustained within the warm
sector will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some strong), very
large hail and damaging gusts.

...Southern Plains into eastern KS/western MO...

Moderate destabilization is forecast along the surface dryline by
afternoon. Strong heating along/just west of the dryline will
promote mixing, while low-level confluence and subtle height falls
(by 21-00z) provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles will be present
amid steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. Large to
very large hail, locally strong wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible. Storms should develop northward during the evening
into eastern KS and western MO as the low-level jet increases.

...Northeast...

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from
the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...
The western US trough will eject across the Four Corners region into
the Intermountain West, with strong southwesterly flow overspreading
the Rockies into the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. A
shortwave trough will pivot through this flow across the Upper
Midwest through the period. A surface low will be centered over the
Mid-MO Valley for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast from north-central IA into southern WI and central
Lower MI. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern
KS into western TX. These features will be the focus of scattered
thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening.

...Mid-Missouri Valley and Great Lakes Region...
Strong daytime heating is expected along and south of the warm from north-central IA into southern WI and lower MI Tuesday afternoon.
This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield
moderate to strong instability (with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop around 20z. Given deep
layer shear around 40 kts, storm mode will be supercellular.
Initially, low-level shear will be marginal, with generally straight
and elongated hodographs. In addition, northeasterly storm motions
will favor crossing the warm front to the cool side of the boundary.
This will make the primary threat large to very large hail (some
2-3+ inches in diameter). With time, and as the low-level jet
increases during the evening, convection may consolidate/grow
upscale into one or more bowing segments and progress eastward into
Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a continued risk for hail and an increasing
risk for damaging wind gusts.

As the strengthening 850-700 mb low-level jet axis will nudge into
central IA/northern MO/northern IL, it will usher in a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates and enlarge low-level hodographs,
increasing tornado potential. While there remains some uncertainty,
there is signal within hi-res guidance from the HREF for sustained
UH tracks south of the warm front. CAM guidance varies on how the
scenario will play out. As mentioned above, a few CAM solutions
favor clustering/linear development by the evening. Should a more
discrete supercell or two be able to root along or south of the
boundary, a few tornadoes will be possible (some strong EF2+).
Nonetheless, even with a more linear mode increasing low-level shear
will favor and increasing chance for line embedded tornadoes.

...Southern Plains into eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
Thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline across the
southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. Strong capping with remain
through most of the morning, but strong heating and convergence
along the dryline favor at least isolated thunderstorm development
by around 19-20z. The environment ahead of the dryline will be
characterized by moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates,
and favorable deep layer shear profiles to support supercells. Large
to very large hail (1-2+ inches in diameter), damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado.

...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level air mass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

..Thornton.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140557
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the
Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of
the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern
Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is
forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE
Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front
across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold
front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity
during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress
northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend
south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central
TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead
of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential
during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass
will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio
Valley/Northeast.

...MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity...

Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region
Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass
recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection
ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection
should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and
along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI
border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection,
MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles
are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low
where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail.
Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned
concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection.
However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low
and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities
may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale
details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening,
upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a
surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and
damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains...

Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK
into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will
support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is
noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence
of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight
hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment
suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that
develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150
m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline.

...Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast...

Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening
low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening
low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate
destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141740
SWODY2
SPC AC 141738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains
on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great
Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies
will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with
cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over
the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the
upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave
moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across
eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day.
Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into
southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm
front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints
along the length of the stationary front.

...TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL...
A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the
developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although
the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall
with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg.
Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon
storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX
across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt
effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing
structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and
damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong
instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level
wind fields.

Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from
northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the
shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be
quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day
storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado
will be possible.

...From WI/IL eastward into PA...
Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will
result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL,
IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable
deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE
along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally
damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150518
SWODY2
SPC AC 150516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into
parts of New York.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on
Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the
central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a
front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest
southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England.
This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

... New York vicinity...

Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the
afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime.
Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the
moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of
30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening
low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at
500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying
risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected.

...Mid-South and Ohio Valley...

Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts
of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this
area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the
afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind
gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment
may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover
lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to
develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151700
SWODY2
SPC AC 151658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of strong to severe storms is possible Thursday over much
of central New York into southern Vermont. Isolated strong storms
may extend southwestward into parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the OH Valley/Great
Lakes into NY and PA on Thursday, providing increasing large-scale
ascent and wind fields. Southwest of this area, a secondary wave is
forecast to move across MO/AR and to the lower OH Valley by 00Z,
with cooling aloft.

At the surface, low pressure will develop east out of lower MI and
into upstate NY during the afternoon, with strengthening
west/southwest winds maintaining 50s to near 60 F dewpoints across
NY and southwest New England. Farther south, a most air mass will
remain over the lower MS Valley, with 60s F dewpoints from AR into
southeast MO and western TN.

...Northeast...
Storms are likely to form ahead of the upper wave during the early
afternoon across western NY and northwest PA, and perhaps beneath
the upper low over lower MI. The MI activity may contain hail, while
the NY storms develop into a multifaceted threat.

Lengthening hodographs across NY and into southwest New England will
favor cellular storm mode, with a few supercells expected. Hail
appears probable. A few damaging gusts may develop late in the day
if activity can produce outflow and become more linear. A tornado
will be possible as well, especially as cells interact with the warm
advection zone/warm front where low-level shear will be bit
stronger, from the Hudson Valley across VT and perhaps into
southwest NH.

...AR/MO/KY/TN...
Models insist that early day storms will occur from eastern AR into
western TN, but with little severe potential. In the wake of this
activity, lapse rates will steepen as cooling aloft overspreads the
area and surface heating occurs. Ascent will be minimal but warm
advection from the southwest and a possible residual outflow
boundary may instigate additional storms from northern AR into TN
and perhaps far northern MS/AL. A few reports of hail or wind would
be possible.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160559
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A potent upper trough from is expected to eject over the Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the region early in the forecast period, with 850-700 mb
flow around 40-50 kt common from parts of OK/KS into WI. At the
surface, forecast guidance has trended a bit further north with the
position of a surface low Friday morning. This low is expected to be
located along the MO River near the SD/IA/NE border, and will
develop northeast into northern WI/MI U.P. by late afternoon. A
trailing cold front will push southeast across Upper MS/Mid-MO
Valley as this occur, becoming oriented from central MI to northwest
MO and southeast KS by 00z. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to
develop over the TX Panhandle/western OK within strong heating near
a dryline extending southwest from western OK into
west-central/western TX. Ahead of these surface features, a
seasonally moist airmass will be in place, or, in the case of the
Upper Midwest, rapidly advect northward during the morning hours.

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, supported by cool to cold
temperatures aloft (near -16 C at 500 MB across portions of IA/MN/WI
at 21z, and -14 to -12 C further southwest) will overspread the
moist boundary layer. This will result in strong destabilization,
with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg expected across the warm sector.
This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will support robust
convective development near the Upper Midwest surface low
southwestward along the cold front into KS by midday. Initial
supercells are possible, especially closer to the surface low in the
Upper Midwest, and near the triple point/dryline in northwest
OK/south-central KS. More rapid upscale growth into a robust
line/LEWP is expected along the cold front from parts of IA into MO
and eastern KS. Given robust instability and very steep lapse rates, significant damaging wind swaths will be possible. Additionally,
large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete
supercells, and possibly within line-embedded supercells. Low-level
wind profiles will also support a aerially extensive tornado risk,
both with QLCS mesovortex circulations, and with discrete
supercells. A corridor of perhaps greater tornado risk/coverage may
develop near the surface low from northeast IA into central WI.
Low-level SRH will be maximized in this area and forecast soundings
indicate large, curved hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km.
Furthermore, mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and very steep lapse rates
should support robust updrafts with low cloud bases. This are may
become a focused corridor for stronger tornadoes.

Linear convection should continue east across the MS River and Lake
Michigan during the evening and overnight hours, with a gradually
waning severe risk into portions of central/southern IL, Lower MI
and IN. Additional convection may develop during the evening and/or
overnight across parts of TX near the dryline, though this scenario
is more conditional. If storms do develop, large will be the main
risk.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161743
SWODY2
SPC AC 161741

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains
during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into
upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the
entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level temperatures will already be relatively cool.

During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI,
with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and
northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI
during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the
cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass
ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the
evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from
Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.

The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample
moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms,
including all modes of severe.

...From IA into WI and northwest IL...
Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early
evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While
convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in
a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km,
along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and
near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape
late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z
ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such,
conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to
indicate stronger tornado potential.

Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with
damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake
MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and
lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet
brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.

...OK/KS/MO...
A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front
Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several
tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer
shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while
the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and
likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support
tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity
is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of
destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much
of MO and into northern OK through the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170526
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure
will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.

Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and
potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable
uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows
extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this
occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until
farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If
these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat
greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and
potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell
structures.

Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s
dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday
afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a
more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat
would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York.
However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of
strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.

...Synopsis...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a
cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into
south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and
lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the
period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally
expected to be sub-severe.

...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians...
As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a
narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute
to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the
front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear
oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk
of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the more organized storms.

...Central TX...
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the
morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of
effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any
elevated supercells that evolve.

...Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of
the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the
afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly
unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing
for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits
confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at
this time.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180541
SWODY2
SPC AC 180539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will move slowly east from the Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Sunday. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will extend from the Plains to the Midwest and Southeast.
This will help advance the cold front (and richer moisture) into the
Atlantic and the Gulf.

The prevalence of high pressure and a continental, dry airmass
across most of the country will lead to minimal thunderstorm chances
on Sunday. A few isolated thunderstorms could develop along the
front from eastern Georgia to eastern North Carolina before the
front moves offshore. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
eastern shore of the Florida Peninsula, but given the weak
instability, strong to severe concern remains minimal.

Finally, thunderstorms that form over the higher terrain in northern
Mexico on Sunday may move into parts of South Texas and the Edwards
Plateau before weakening in the increasingly hostile post-frontal
environment.

..Bentley.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181724
SWODY2
SPC AC 181723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Lakes
into the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves off
the Eastern Seaboard and the FL Peninsula. Preceding the trough,
large-scale ascent will support isolated/elevated thunderstorms
across coastal New England into the afternoon. Similarly, a couple thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front over coastal NC and
farther south over the central/southern FL Peninsula (aided by an
Atlantic sea breeze), though much of this activity may develop
offshore. Farther west over the lower Great Lakes, lapse rates will
quickly steepen beneath the core of the midlevel trough, and
sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy will support a couple
thunderstorms -- given increasing ascent in the left-exit region of
a midlevel jet.

Finally, isolated/elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a
post-frontal air mass across southwest TX, where weak warm-air
advection will develop amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

..Weinman.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190547
SWODY2
SPC AC 190546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough will progress from the Northeast off the New
England coast on Monday, while the trailing cold front continues
southward into the Caribbean Sea. In the wake of this system, high
pressure and a relatively dry airmass will limit thunderstorm
potential across much of the CONUS.

... South Florida ...

North of the aforementioned front, diurnal heating of a moist
post-frontal airmass characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s
should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Weak
buoyancy and a lack of significant large-scale ascent should
preclude any severe threat.

... Southwest into Texas ...

Farther west, a subtle, low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into
South Texas, combined with weak low-level warm advection and modest
moisture return will support a few rounds of isolated thunderstorms
across Southwest Texas into Central Texas.

Additionally, isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the
Southwest as midlevel moisture impinges on the region. This activity
is expected to remain focused over the higher terrain, and given the
weak instability and modest forcing, severe weather is not expected.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

$$

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